February 2025 · Guide · 3 min read · by Kinan Sawar, MD — REALTOR® at Shorewest, REALTORS®
Inventory is rebuilding, but it’s still thin by historical standards. The lock-in effect is loosening only slowly.
The defining feature of this housing cycle isn’t price — it’s the missing for-sale sign.
Active listings have crept up from the 2022 lows, but in most markets they remain well below pre-pandemic norms. The result is a market that transacts at historically low volume even when prices are flat.
The lock-in effect is the culprit: a large majority of homeowners hold mortgages far below current rates, so selling means trading a cheap loan for an expensive one. Most simply stay put, and the homes never hit the market.
Only three things loosen lock-in: meaningfully lower rates, enough time for life events (jobs, families, retirements) to force moves, or prices high enough to make the trade worth it. In 2025, it’s mostly the second — a slow, life-driven thaw.
Kinan Sawar, MD — REALTOR® at Shorewest, REALTORS®, serving Milwaukee and Southeast Wisconsin (Milwaukee, Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington, Racine, Kenosha, and Walworth counties). Email: [email protected] · Phone: (618) 713-2964.
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Home values and rents are Zillow ZHVI/ZORI estimates for the named area, as of 2026-07-03; incomes and population are U.S. Census (SAIPE, Population Estimates); migration is IRS Statistics of Income. Area-level statistical estimates for information only — not an appraisal, and not financial, legal, or tax advice.